Spain vs Belgium — the tournament’s best defence, tested by its best late comeback

You could not have written a QF2 more neatly for the tactics section of the Saturday sports pages. Spain have not conceded a goal at this World Cup — five games, five clean sheets, 9 for — and by kickoff at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood they’ll already own a record they set on the way here. Belgium, meanwhile, are the team that came back from 2–0 down against Senegal to win 3–2 after extra time in the Round of 32, then dispatched the USA 4–1. One side wants a chess match at walking pace; the other wants chaos, and the tournament’s most persistent comeback king in Kevin De Bruyne pulling the strings. Kickoff is Friday 10 July, 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT, and every remaining quarter-final is on CTV and TSN in Canada (RDS in French) — so if you’re across the country, this is a straight lunch or afternoon watch, no subscription needed.

The record: Spain’s historic clean-sheet run

Luis de la Fuente’s Spain have played five World Cup matches — draw against Cape Verde, then a 4–0 group win, a 1–0 over Uruguay, a 3–0 dismissal of Austria in the Round of 32, and Merino’s 91st-minute winner past Portugal in the Round of 16 — and not one shot past Unai Simón. That is five clean sheets from five, and combined with the tail end of Spain’s previous World Cup run, it makes them the first team in history with six consecutive World Cup clean sheets. Simón himself passed Walter Zenga’s 1990 mark for World Cup minutes unbeaten (previously 517) somewhere in the Portugal tie. Ridiculous numbers. Historic run.

Belgium have been fun instead. Rudi Garcia has patched a golden generation into something closer to a shootout side: draws against Egypt and Iran, then 5–1 over New Zealand to close the group; then the 3–2 comeback vs Senegal (Lukebakio and a late Tielemans equaliser, then Doku with the winner in extra time — from 2–0 down at 85 minutes) and a 4–1 win over the USA with De Ketelaere on a brace. The bad news is that Amadou Onana suffered an ACL rupture during that USA match — 21 minutes in — and is out for the tournament. Belgium’s midfield is going to feel it.

The odds: Spain a clear favourite, draw sits fat

As of Friday morning ET, DraftKings (via SI) opened this as Spain 1.61 to win in 90, draw 3.95, Belgium 5.50. Covers had cross-book best prices around Spain 1.625 / draw 4.90 / Belgium 5.70 — that gap is mostly book-to-book, not a clean intraday move. Practical read: shop the Belgium price and the draw if you’re taking the underdog side; the Spain price is where every book expects to land.

Angles I’m chewing on rather than the straight moneyline:

• Under on total goals. Spain’s defensive record and their preference for possession over transition point to a low-event 90 minutes. If Belgium sit deep and hunt one break (Onana out), the under looks reasonable — check where the total is set at your book.
• Draw / Belgium double chance. Six consecutive World Cup clean sheets is unsustainable eventually — and this is the highest-quality attack Spain have faced. If you want the price, don’t pay peak-Spain moneyline; take the way in through the draw.
• De Ketelaere / De Bruyne shot props. If Belgium do it, De Bruyne creates it and De Ketelaere finishes it — De Ketelaere already has a brace this tournament.

Key absences and doubts

Spain: Nico Williams is a doubt with a right adductor strain from the group stage vs Uruguay — initial reports had him "highly unlikely" to return, later ones have him back in the matchday squad but unlikely to start. Yeremy Pino (an AC-joint shoulder sprain, not the initially feared collarbone) is available but his minutes have been managed. Ferran Torres is one yellow card away from a semi-final suspension.

Belgium: Onana out for the tournament (ACL). Zeno Debast is a doubt with a leg issue and will need a late fitness test. Kevin De Bruyne is tipped for a central recall after being managed through the group. Brandon Mechele is a fresh addition to the semi-final ban-risk list — one yellow away from missing an SF if Belgium advance.

Predicted line-ups per Sports Mole / RotoWire:

• Spain: Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.
• Belgium: Courtois; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Vanaken, Tielemans; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere.

The venue and the weather

SoFi Stadium in Inglewood/LA has a fixed roof with open sides — the field is covered, so heat and sun are taken out of the equation even on an LA afternoon. Los Angeles NWS is calling for 78–81°F at kickoff, cloudy morning clearing to mostly sunny, effectively zero precipitation, with a Heat Advisory in effect around the area. Wind SSE to SW at 5–10 mph. Under a roof, the number doesn’t matter — this is a controlled environment for both teams. Good grass, good pace, no weather excuse.

The Canadian read: viewing plan and where to root

If you’re in Toronto or Montréal, kickoff is 3 p.m. ET — a proper Friday-afternoon watch that will spill into commutes. In Vancouver, Calgary or Edmonton you’re looking at noon PT, which is a lunch break for a lot of us. CTV has this free-to-air, which matters after Business in Vancouver’s polling showed more than half of Canadians closely followed the tournament and about two in five identifying as big or moderate soccer fans. That is a bigger audience than Canadian soccer has had in a generation, and it will be watching a genuinely great chapter.

My read

Spain deserve favourite status, and Onana’s absence removes the Belgian who was best equipped to break De la Fuente’s midfield. But 6-consecutive-World-Cup-clean-sheets is a wildly unsustainable rate, and De Bruyne + De Ketelaere have carried Belgium out of harder spots than this. I make Spain the right winner more often than not — 55–60% side — but the price on 1.61 is the price for a certainty, and this isn’t a certainty. The value, if you want a play, is on the underdog through the draw — Belgium’s double chance, or an under at whatever the goals number opens at. Not a green light, but a fairer number than 1.61 lets on.

Elsewhere: our full World Cup 2026 odds & predictions hub, the World Cup 2026 dark horses piece for the long-priced live sides, and the Spain squad breakdown.

Odds for information only and correct at time of writing — please bet responsibly. In Ontario, betting is regulated by AGCO / iGaming Ontario; in BC, BCLC PlayNow. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600. 19+ (18+ in Alberta and Manitoba).