Spain vs Austria — Thursday’s Round-of-32 headliner, and the rest of the card

Three Round-of-32 ties fill the Thursday card, and for Canadian fans the timing is close to perfect: an afternoon opener you can watch with lunch, then two more that roll into the evening at Canadian venues. The headline act kicks first — Spain vs Austria at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, 3 p.m. ET / noon PT. Spain are the shortest price on the board all day; Austria are the side nobody in Group B wanted to draw. Here is how I’m reading it, plus a quick pointer to the two later games we’ve previewed in full.

The line: Spain heavy, Austria live underdogs

As of roughly 8 a.m. ET on 2 July, the match-winner (90-minute) market sits around Spain 1.33, draw 5.25, Austria 10.00 across the major books. Spain’s outright-title price is out near 8.00 — drifting a touch this week as the bottom half of the bracket firmed up. Those are short numbers, and short numbers on a knockout favourite are where careless money goes to die, so let’s be honest about the risk before anyone backs it.

Why Spain are favourites — and why it isn’t a formality

Spain did something in this group they had never done in their history: come through a World Cup group stage without conceding a single goal (Group H, seven points). That is the profile of a side built to win knockout football — control the ball, starve the opponent, win the one moment that matters.

The complication is personnel. Nico Williams (adductor) and Yeremy Pino (shoulder) are both ruled out, which strips Spain of two of their sharpest wide runners and heaps the creative load onto 18-year-old Lamine Yamal as the focal point. Spain have the midfield — Pedri-style control — to dominate possession regardless. But finishing off a stubborn, fully-fit opponent with a patched-up front line is exactly the kind of afternoon that produces a nervy 1–0, or worse, a penalty shootout. (Squad statuses as of 2 July, ~8 a.m. ET, per ESPN and World Soccer Talk.)

Austria: fearless, fit, and here on merit

Ralf Rangnick’s Austria are in the knockout round of a World Cup for the first time since 1998, and they got here the hard way — a 96th-minute Kalajdžić equaliser to escape the group. The reward is a clean bill of health: no injuries, no suspensions, Arnautović, Sabitzer and Laimer all available. Rangnick teams press with structure and punish transitions, and against a Spain side missing its pace out wide, the Austrian counter is a real weapon. At 10.00 to win in 90 minutes — or a much friendlier price on the "to advance" and double-chance markets — Austria are the definition of a live underdog.

My lean

Spain should have too much control, and I expect them through. But I’m not touching 1.33 on the straight win. If I’m involved at all, it’s Austria +draw on double chance, or a cautious under on total goals given Spain’s blunted attack and Austria’s discipline. Knockout football rewards patience, not chalk.

The rest of Thursday’s card — at Canadian venues

The two later kickoffs are on home soil, and we’ve got full previews on both:

• Portugal vs Croatia — BMO Field, Toronto, 7 p.m. ET. A Ronaldo-vs-Modrić farewell in front of a Toronto crowd. See our Portugal–Croatia Toronto preview.
• Switzerland vs Algeria — BC Place, Vancouver, 11 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. PT. The side that beat Canada in the group, back on Canadian turf. See our Vancouver stadium guide.

For the wider market, our odds and predictions hub tracks the outright board, and new bettors can start with the World Cup betting guide. If you’re weighing where to play, brands such as Boomerang Bet and Rabona post CAD lines for Canadian users — always confirm your provincial licensing first.

Odds for information only and correct at time of writing — please bet responsibly. In Ontario, betting is regulated by AGCO / iGaming Ontario; ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600. 19+.