Portugal vs Croatia at BMO Field — a Toronto farewell for a legend

Of all the fixtures the draw could have sent to Toronto, it gave us this one. Portugal vs Croatia, Round of 32, BMO Field, 7 p.m. ET on Thursday 2 July — and with it, near-certainly the last World Cup match of either Cristiano Ronaldo (40) or Luka Modrić (41), two former Real Madrid teammates with six Ballon d’Ors between them. One of them walks off the pitch in Liberty Village and out of World Cup football for good. If you have a ticket, you already know. If you’re watching from a patio on King West or a basement in Scarborough, clear your evening.

The occasion: two greats, one exit

We don’t often get to call a match a farewell in advance, but this is as close as it comes. Ronaldo and Modrić have circled each other for the better part of two decades — club teammates in Madrid, rivals across finals and Ballons d’Or, and now, at 40 and 41, almost certainly playing their final World Cup. A knockout tie guarantees one of them is eliminated on the night. For a Toronto crowd that will feature huge Portuguese and Croatian communities — this city has been humming about this game since the bracket cleared — that subplot is the whole story.

The football underneath it is serious too. Portugal finished second in Group K on five points (1–1 vs DR Congo, 5–0 vs Uzbekistan, 0–0 vs Colombia), Ronaldo still leading the line with Neto, Bruno Fernandes and Félix around him. Croatia finished second in Group L on six points (2–4 to England, 1–0 vs Panama, 2–1 vs Paraguay), with Modrić and Kovačić still setting the tempo and Gvardiol anchoring the back. The head-to-head favours Portugal — played 10, Portugal seven wins, two draws, one loss, the last meeting a 1–1 in the Nations League in November 2024.

The odds — and an overnight move worth noting

As of roughly 8 a.m. ET on 2 July, the 90-minute match-winner market reads about Portugal 1.77–1.80, draw 3.40–3.65, Croatia 4.70–5.00 across the major books. That’s a clear-favourite line for Portugal, but the interesting part is the direction of travel: Croatia’s price shortened by roughly 45% overnight as money came in on the underdog, while Portugal drifted (their outright-advance number moved out noticeably). When a dog gets backed that hard the night before a knockout tie, it usually means sharp opinion sees the favourite as vulnerable — and a Modrić-run midfield is exactly the kind of side that can make a Portugal team play at its tempo instead of their own.

Both squads are, notably, close to full strength — Croatia’s injury table is clean and Portugal reported no notable absences in the build-up (as of 2 July). So this is a straight football question, not a war of attrition decided by who’s missing.

The Toronto factor — heat, kickoff, and a partisan crowd

BMO Field is open-air, and Toronto is in the middle of a hot spell — a heat warning is in effect, with roughly a 40% chance of showers around the 7 p.m. window. For a Portugal side that likes to control the ball and a Croatia midfield built on patient possession, a warm, potentially greasy evening favours the team that keeps the game slow and technical — which, frankly, suits both. Hydration breaks would help the older legs on the pitch, and there are a few of those.

For fans, the practical notes: 7 p.m. ET is 4 p.m. PT, so West-Coast viewers get an afternoon watch. If you’re heading to BMO Field itself, our Toronto BMO Field guide covers transit and the Liberty Village approach; our broader stadiums guide has the rest of the host venues.

My read

Portugal have the better group-stage evidence and the head-to-head edge, and at home-continent altitude I’d still make them favourites. But I don’t love 1.77 given how Croatia have been backed, and a Modrić-Kovačić axis is precisely the profile that drags Portugal into a scrappy, low-event night that can go either way — or to penalties. If I’m playing it, I lean toward the draw being live at 90 minutes (this fixture’s history is full of tight results) and toward Croatia as the value side to advance. Neutral’s pick: whatever happens, watch it. Some of these players won’t pass this way again.

For team-by-team depth, see our Portugal at World Cup 2026 page, and track the wider board on the odds and predictions hub.

Odds for information only and correct at time of writing — please bet responsibly. In Ontario, betting is regulated by AGCO / iGaming Ontario; ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600. 19+.