World Cup 2026 — July 9 recap: France into the semis, and the outright market moves
Available in USThursday was a one-match night, but it was the match. France beat Morocco 2–0 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on 9 July to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup for the third straight tournament — 2018, 2022, and now 2026 on our side of the Atlantic. Kylian Mbappé missed a first-half penalty, then scored the 60th-minute opener; Ousmane Dembélé added the second on 66. France dominated the shot count 21–4 and the underlying numbers (~3.0 xG to Morocco’s ~0.1 per FOX/ESPN), and they remain the only side left with a perfect 6-from-6 record. Here is what happened, what it did to the outright market, and what a Canadian bettor should be watching next.
The match: France 2–0 Morocco
Deschamps’ side never really let Morocco settle. A first-half Mbappé penalty was saved — Morocco’s one clean moment of the night — but France’s grip returned on the hour. Mbappé 60′ finished from close range, then Dembélé 66′ curled a second past Bounou. It was Mbappé’s 20th career World Cup goal, one behind Messi’s all-time record of 21, and his 8th of this tournament, which pulls him level with Messi (also 8) at the top of the Golden Boot race. Morocco’s young side — most of the outfield players have 10 to 15 caps aside from Achraf Hakimi (100+) — pushed hard in patches, but France’s midfield closed everything down.
Deschamps was measured after the whistle:
"It’s confirmation. There is a lot of pride in reaching a third consecutive World Cup semi-final." — Didier Deschamps, France head coach
"It’s one of the sickest days ever in Norwegian history. You just have to enjoy it, because this is sick." — Erling Haaland, on Norway’s R16 win over Brazil — a reminder, from the other end of the bracket, of what these knockout nights are worth (beIN Sports, 6 July).
Morocco go home as Africa’s last team eliminated — a Qatar-2022 semi-final rematch that France won again. New head coach Mohamed Ouahbi (who replaced Walid Regragui in March 2026) will point to a young roster that made it out of the group and knocked out the Netherlands in the Round of 32 as a foundation to build on.
Outright winner odds — France steamed to clear favourite
The result did what everyone expected it to do to the market. As of the evening of 9 July, France have shortened into the clear outright favourite across the recorded books, with a range of about 2.35–2.80 decimal — Kalshi’s exchange had them at 2.46 at 6:31 p.m. ET, down from around 2.80 (roughly +180) before kickoff. Spain and Argentina are grouped behind, England a beat further back, and the three long-priced live sides fill out the rest.
| Market | Selection | Odds (decimal) | Aggregator | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outright winner | France | 2.46 (range 2.35–2.80) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Outright winner | Spain | 5.78 (range 4.70–5.78) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Outright winner | Argentina | 5.43 (range 4.90–5.43) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Outright winner | England | 6.41 (range 5.60–6.41) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Outright winner | Norway | 15.89 (range ~16.0) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Outright winner | Belgium | 47.62 (range 31.0–47.62) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
| Outright winner | Switzerland | 52.63 (range 31.0–52.63) | Kalshi (via Covers) | 2026-07-09 18:31 |
Worth noting: the 2nd-favourite spot is genuinely split between US books and the exchange. FanDuel and ESPN had Spain ahead of Argentina (Spain +360/+370 vs Argentina +390) as of 8 July, while the Kalshi exchange on 9 July priced Argentina slightly ahead of Spain (5.43 vs 5.78). Both prices are live and both are defensible — worth shopping around before you commit to either.
Golden Boot — Mbappé pulls level with Messi
Mbappé’s 8th of the tournament also levelled him with Lionel Messi (also 8) at the top of the Golden Boot standings, and the sportsbooks disagree on who now leads the market. FOX/Covers had Mbappé as the new outright favourite around 1.95 (−105) on 9 July, while FanDuel kept Messi favourite (~2.20) over Mbappé (~2.35). Haaland sits at 7 goals (co-2nd), Kane at 6, then a chase pack — Dembélé, Oyarzabal and Bellingham — on 4 each. All four leading contenders are on teams still alive. We break down the Mbappé-Messi race in a dedicated piece.
The Canadian angle: what to watch this weekend
Canada were eliminated by Morocco 3-0 in the Round of 16 on 4 July, so this is a neutral run for most of us now — but the weekend viewing is unusually kind for Canadian time zones. Every remaining quarter-final airs free-to-air on CTV (and TSN in English, RDS in French), which means you don’t need a subscription to watch any of them.
| Match | Date (ET) | Kickoff (ET) | Kickoff (PT) | Where to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QF2 Spain vs Belgium | Fri 10 Jul | 15:00 | 12:00 | CTV / TSN / RDS |
| QF3 Norway vs England | Sat 11 Jul | 17:00 | 14:00 | CTV / TSN / RDS |
| QF4 Argentina vs Switzerland | Sat 11 Jul | 21:00 | 18:00 | CTV / TSN / RDS |
The semi-final feed is also set: France meets the winner of Spain–Belgium in SF1 on Tuesday 14 July, 3 p.m. ET, at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, while the winners of the two Saturday ties meet in SF2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Wednesday 15 July.
- France 2–0 Morocco in Foxborough — Mbappé 60′, Dembélé 66′; France into a third consecutive World Cup semi-final with a perfect 6/6 record.
- France now the clear outright favourite — shortened from ~2.80 to 2.35–2.80 across the recorded books (Kalshi 2.46, 9 Jul evening).
- Golden Boot flipped: Mbappé’s 8th pulled him level with Messi at 8 — books split on the new favourite (FOX ~1.95 Mbappé; FanDuel ~2.20 Messi).
- Second-favourite ordering is contested: US books (Spain ahead) vs the Kalshi exchange (Argentina ahead) — shop around.
- Canadian viewing: every remaining QF is on CTV free-to-air, plus TSN in English and RDS in French; kickoffs work for the country’s East and West coasts alike.
For the full picture see our groups, schedule and bracket hub, the shifting outright market on the odds & predictions page, and the World Cup 2026 dark horses piece for the long-priced contenders still alive.
Odds for information only and correct at time of writing — please bet responsibly. In Ontario, betting is regulated by AGCO / iGaming Ontario; ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600. 19+ (18+ in Alberta and Manitoba).
