World Cup 2026 semi-final picks: the final four, the odds and where the value sits
Available in USFour teams left, and they are the four you would have named a month ago. France, Spain, England and Argentina have reached the semi-finals — reported as the first time all top-four FIFA-ranked nations have made a World Cup semi (FOX, Yahoo). Two ties this week decide the Final: France vs Spain on Tuesday 14 July in Dallas, and England vs Argentina on Wednesday 15 July in Atlanta. Both kick off at 3 p.m. ET / noon PT and both are free-to-air on CTV in Canada. Here is the phase-level read for Canadian bettors — the outright picture, both match markets, and the angles I like.
The outright market: France clear, then a genuine scrap
France stayed put as the clear outright favourite — 2.35–2.50 decimal across the recorded books (ESPN 2.35, FanDuel 2.40, FOX 2.50) — as of 12–13 July. Behind them the market is a real fight, and the order depends on which book you open.
| Market | Selection | Odds (decimal) | Aggregator | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outright winner | France | 2.35–2.50 | ESPN 2.35 / FanDuel 2.40 / FOX 2.50 | 12–13 Jul AM |
| Outright winner | Spain | 4.30–5.10 | FanDuel 4.30 / ESPN 5.10 | 12–13 Jul AM |
| Outright winner | England | 4.10–5.90 | FanDuel 4.10 / ESPN 5.90 | 12–13 Jul AM |
| Outright winner | Argentina | 5.00–5.20 | FanDuel 5.00 / ESPN 5.20 | 12–13 Jul AM |
ESPN has Spain (5.10) second, then Argentina (5.20), then England (5.90). FanDuel flips it: England (4.10) is its second favourite, then Spain (4.30), then Argentina (5.00). England is the piece that moved — steamed from 5.60–6.54 before the quarter-finals to 4.10 after beating Norway. That is a big swing, and it means if you fancy England to go all the way, ESPN’s 5.90 is materially better than FanDuel’s 4.10. Classic shop-around territory.
SF1: France vs Spain — the "final before the final"
Only their second-ever World Cup meeting (the first since France 3–1 Spain in the 2006 Round of 16). France are the tie favourite at 2.35 to win in 90 minutes, with the draw and Spain both around 3.20 (ESPN/FanDuel via ESPN betting). France carry a 6-win streak and have scored 16, conceded 2, with clean sheets in all three knockout ties. Spain arrive unbeaten in 36 — one short of Argentina’s all-time record — but only just lost their tournament-long shutout to Belgium.
| Market | Selection | Odds (decimal) | Aggregator | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF1 1X2 (90 min) | France | 2.35 | ESPN / FanDuel via ESPN | 2026-07-13 AM |
| SF1 1X2 (90 min) | Draw | 3.20 | ESPN / FanDuel via ESPN | 2026-07-13 AM |
| SF1 1X2 (90 min) | Spain | 3.20 | ESPN / FanDuel via ESPN | 2026-07-13 AM |
The swing factor is France’s fitness: Tchouaméni is a major doubt (thigh) and Mbappé is carrying an ankle knock but is expected to start. Full breakdown in our France vs Spain semi-final preview.
SF2: England vs Argentina — the tighter tie, and a rivalry renewed
The market rates this the closer game — the three-way spread is compressed. England 2.60, the draw 2.90, Argentina 3.10 (ESPN/FanDuel via ESPN betting). It is the first World Cup meeting between the two since 2002, a fixture loaded with history from 1986 and 1998.
| Market | Selection | Odds (decimal) | Aggregator | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF2 1X2 (90 min) | England | 2.60 | ESPN / FanDuel via ESPN | 2026-07-13 AM |
| SF2 1X2 (90 min) | Draw | 2.90 | ESPN / FanDuel via ESPN | 2026-07-13 AM |
| SF2 1X2 (90 min) | Argentina | 3.10 | ESPN / FanDuel via ESPN | 2026-07-13 AM |
England are without Quansah (final match of a two-match ban) and Argentina have played 60 extra minutes across two extra-time ties — a fatigue marker worth weighing. Full breakdown in our England vs Argentina semi-final preview.
The angles I like across the phase
- France to reach the Final, not necessarily to win it. They are the most complete side (16 for, 2 against) but the outright price already reflects it. The “to advance” line has France at short odds over Spain — a cleaner expression than the 2.35 outright.
- England’s outright at ESPN (5.90), not FanDuel (4.10). If you want a piece of England going all the way, the gap between the two books is the story. The number, not the team, is the edge.
- Under-appreciated fatigue on Argentina. Two extra-time wins in the knockouts is a lot of minutes on 30-something legs; it may not show against Switzerland’s 10 men but England will press it.
- Golden Boot alongside the winner market. Mbappé and Messi are level on 8; whoever reaches the Final gets two more games to add to it. If you like France, a small Mbappé Golden Boot piece rides the same logic — see the Golden Boot picks page.
The Canadian read
Both semis kick off at 3 p.m. ET / noon PT — a mid-afternoon watch in Ontario, Québec and Atlantic Canada, a lunch-hour tune-in in Vancouver and Calgary. Bell Media has the exclusive Canadian rights: TSN carries every match in English and RDS in French, with these marquee ties also free-to-air on CTV (and Noovo in French), so no subscription is needed. With Canada out since the Round of 16, this is a neutral run, but the pull of England and Argentina — two of the most-followed shirts in Canadian living rooms — makes SF2 the pick of the two for most Canadian audiences. The Final lands Sunday 19 July, 3 p.m. ET, at MetLife Stadium.
- France clear outright favourite 2.35–2.50; Spain 4.30–5.10, England 4.10–5.90, Argentina 5.00–5.20 — second-favourite order split between ESPN and FanDuel.
- SF1 France–Spain: France 2.35, draw 3.20, Spain 3.20 — the “final before the final,” only their 2nd WC meeting.
- SF2 England–Argentina: England 2.60, draw 2.90, Argentina 3.10 — the tighter tie; first WC meeting since 2002.
- Value angle: England’s outright is 5.90 at ESPN vs 4.10 at FanDuel — shop the number.
- Canadian viewing: both semis CTV free-to-air, 3 p.m. ET / noon PT.
More detail in the two match previews — France vs Spain and England vs Argentina — plus the outright odds & predictions pillar and the World Cup 2026 dark horses.
Odds for information only and correct at time of writing — please bet responsibly. In Ontario, betting is regulated by AGCO / iGaming Ontario; ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600. 19+ (18+ in Alberta and Manitoba).
